Open any professional HVAC publication today and it seems that refrigerants have become the industry's main topic: R32, R290, A2L, GWP, F-Gas. For most property owners, this sounds like an internal technical discussion among engineers.
But I see this issue differently. In my view, it is not just about which gas will be inside an air conditioner or heat pump. It is about how the very architecture of a building's engineering systems will change.
A refrigerant may seem like an equipment detail. In reality, it is gradually influencing the entire approach to design, operation and the future value of a building.
The issue is not a single refrigerant type
It is very easy to reduce the whole discussion to a simple choice: R32, propane, CO₂, new blends or something else. But for a building owner, that is not the main question.
The main question is different: where is the refrigerant located, how much is in the system, what risks does it create, how is it serviced, how quickly can the system be upgraded, and how ready is it for the next regulatory changes?
That is why changing refrigerants is not simply a matter of replacing one technical parameter with another. It changes the balance between efficiency, safety, servicing, refurbishment costs and the building's long-term resilience.
For twenty years, the market moved towards simpler building systems
Over recent decades, direct expansion systems have become very popular. VRF, VRV and DX systems brought many advantages to the market: flexibility, compactness, fast installation, less hydronic infrastructure and fewer plant rooms.
For many buildings, this was a logical and effective solution. And I do not think such systems will disappear. They will remain an important part of the market for a long time.
But a new question is emerging today: what happens when the refrigerant itself becomes not just a working fluid, but a factor in safety, regulation and future upgrades?
Water may return not as a step backwards, but as a strategic buffer
I believe we will see a growing role for water-based and hybrid systems in the coming years. Not because water has suddenly become fashionable, but because it allows risks to be distributed differently within a building.
Fan coil units, hydronic circuits, heat pumps, chillers, HVRF and low-temperature systems may all take on new significance. The refrigerant stays where it is easier to control, while water or another secondary heat transfer fluid circulates inside the building.
This does not mean that water is always better. Water-based systems have their own complexities: hydraulics, balancing, pumps, water quality, leak risks, freezing and servicing. Strategically, however, they can give a building greater long-term flexibility.
For a developer, this is about the asset, not just the environment
I believe the biggest mistake is to view European changes solely as environmental requirements. For a developer, the implications are much broader.
A commercial building is not built for three years. It has to operate for decades. During that time, refrigerants, safety requirements, servicing standards, insurance practices, energy tariffs and tenant expectations may all change.
That makes future adaptability just as important as the cost of equipment today.
A sound engineering concept is not simply one that is cheaper to install now. It is one that can be sensibly adapted in ten years' time.
What to plan for today
I would advise developers and owners to consider refrigerants not through the lens of a single equipment model, but in terms of how manageable the building will be in the future.
- Minimise dependence on a single scenario. A building should not be locked into a solution that cannot be upgraded without major refurbishment.
- Consider where the risk is located. It is important to understand exactly where the refrigerant is and what happens if there is a leak or regulatory requirements change.
- Leave room for future upgrades. Plant rooms, shafts, service routes, controls and equipment access can cost significantly more if considered too late.
- Design the system as part of the energy strategy. Heat pumps, energy storage, solar generation, tariffs and peak loads are increasingly connected with HVAC.
- Plan for digital monitoring and control. The future system must have measurable performance, be clear to operate and be ready for analytics.
Not an isolated issue, but part of a wider shift
New refrigerants are just one of the developments simultaneously transforming building services engineering. Alongside them are electrification, heat pumps, digitalisation, AI, remote monitoring, energy storage and new requirements for operational transparency.
On the surface, these look like separate trends. In reality, they are all moving the market in the same direction: engineering systems are becoming more than a collection of equipment — they are becoming long-term infrastructure underpinning a building's value.
Key takeaway
I do not think the near future of HVAC will be defined by competition between R32, propane or any other refrigerant. The real competition will be between two approaches to design.
The first approach simply tries to fit a new refrigerant into the old system logic. The second asks a deeper question: what should the building's system architecture look like if it is to remain modern, safe and valuable in twenty years' time?
That is why I do not view European requirements as a narrow environmental issue. I see them as one of the factors forcing the market to rethink building services engineering as a whole.
And perhaps in ten years we will realise that the biggest change was not the new refrigerant. It was the way it made engineers, developers and owners rethink the future of the building itself.
